December brings holiday cheer and cold temperatures. Only one of those things actually impacts a football game. Now is a good time of year to spend a couple of minutes each week checking the weather reports before finalizing your lineups. Cold temperatures will impact dome teams and squads that usually play in warm weather cities. Snow isn’t a big deal unless it’s coming down in heaps. Rain also isn’t that big of a deal unless it’s pouring. Wind, however, is the biggest factor. We’ve seen it already this season. If you’re starting players in a game with winds blowing at 25-plus mph, think twice.
How did Smith go from six targets in consecutive games to none? Two big factors: One, the Titans leaned plenty on the run in Week 12 against a depleted Colts defense. Two, Ryan Tannehill’s receivers were getting open faster than he was. And yeah, Geoff Swaim was too. You’d have to hope that the Titans keep Smith in mind in red-zone packages against a Browns defense that ranks fifth in Fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends on the season and first in Fantasy points allowed to tight ends over the past three weeks. Smith is among the best touchdown-or-bust Fantasy tight ends out there, which is to say he’s at best a borderline non-PPR starter with a bad floor.
Davis has a good, safe floor, with 10-plus PPR points in eight of nine games this season (six-plus in non-PPR). The Browns’ beat-up secondary — the one that let up a season-high 17.1 yards per catch to the Jaguars (!!) — is what provides lots of optimism. He’s making a handful of nice plays per game and teammate A.J. Brown is beginning to draw coverage away from him. Eliminate the three matchups the Browns defense was helped by poor weather, and they’ve been attacked for 12 scores by receivers over eight outings (mostly with star cornerback Denzel Ward). Davis makes the cut as a low-end No. 2 choice.